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房價連續下跌,投資客出逃,中山怎麽了?

本帖最後由 深圳都市圈 於 2020-7-1 14:26 編輯

1、最近的廣州都市圈和深圳都市圈都不帶中山玩。
2、中山二手房掛牌價在持續下跌,而掛牌數量卻在持續上漲。

中山樓市近三周在售二手房數量為34173套,34710套,35240套,掛牌量在持續上漲,但價格卻在持續下跌,6月二手房均價跌落至10926元/㎡。

前兩年憑借著深中通道的概念,中山樓市一路火熱,在深圳大街上還能遇到有人發小廣告的那種,但這兩年基本銷聲匿跡。
按理說近期深圳樓市火熱應該會傳導到臨深樓市,東莞已經漲過一輪,廣州和惠陽呼聲也很大,唯獨不見中山,也難怪那麽多的投資客開始慌了。
中山當下究竟是什麽情況,未來還有沒有逆襲的機會?

要知道中山為什麽會跌,首先要知道他是怎麽漲起來的。
2016年,深中通道開始動工,城軌1、2號線建設在即、廣州地鐵延伸至中山獲批、萬達確定落戶中山、深茂鐵路接駁中山站...一系列的重磅利好讓中山突然有了無限想象空間,於是一波投資客入場,中山房價因此漲了一倍以上,2015年-2017年是中山房價高速上漲的3年。

到2017年年中,中山市區漲到1.5-2萬的區間,下屬的各鎮也普遍漲到1萬以上。
中山本地居民是無法撐得起房價上漲的,中山的這波上漲的最堅定力量就是來自深圳的投資客。
可惜好景不長,17年隨著最嚴調控的到來,深圳本身也開啟了橫盤期,深圳投資客自然是無力繼續推高中山的房價了,於是中山開始了量價齊跌,之後開始長時間的平穩期。
但最近又開啟了陰跌,原因是之前入手的投資客眼看漲價無望,紛紛開始拋售手頭資產,所以二手房掛牌數量在不斷增加,著急出手的業主肯定會下調價格。

其實中山作為大灣區九市之一,他是有大灣區光環的,區位優勢擺在那,是珠三角一個位置相當好的城市,要港口有港口、要環境有環境,北廣州東深圳南珠海,還有歷史IP孫中山。
位置既然不錯,為何廣州和深圳都不帶他玩?說來確實有些尷尬,說是臨廣,不如佛山,說是臨深不如東莞惠陽,最多是和珠海挨得近,南部的坦洲還能有珠海人過來買房,其他真的不夠突出。
北部說挨著南沙和順德,但中山城區距離順德主城區和南沙主城區都在30公裏以上,廣州怎麽帶他玩?

而一條深中通道雖然能直接拉近中山和深圳的聯系,但深中通道全長24公裏,實際通勤基本是要超過30公裏,網傳單次過路費就要90元,每日通勤來回180元,金錢成本太高,而且標榜半小時就能實現雙城通勤也過於理想化,畢竟塞車完全不可預估。

深圳有挨著更近的惠陽和東莞,又何必要舍近求遠呢?
當然,深中通道對於中山肯定意義重大,但還無法達到改變整個中山格局的地步。
不管是深中通道還是城軌,肯定都不如一條地鐵來得更方便,雖然廣州也有地鐵18號線連接中山,但畢竟是遠期規劃,這一刻廣州的老友肯定還是佛山,這也是為什麽廣州深圳在此次大都市圈規劃中不帶中山玩的原因。

地理位置的尷尬是其一,更尷尬的還有中山的經濟。
2019年,廣東省邁入10萬億臺階,全年共實現107671.07億元的GDP總量,同比增長6.2%,但是對於中山市來說,2019年卻是至暗的一年,相比於2018年,中山的GDP縮水531.6億,GDP增速僅為1.1%。
從2018年到2019年,中山GDP從廣東第六直接降到第九,中山經濟為何一路下滑,主要和中山的產業有關。

在中山,民營經濟、實體產業撐起了半壁江山,但2012年後,制造業成本優勢逐漸喪失,沿海地區開始頻頻出現倒閉潮,以制造業為主的城市紛紛面臨轉型升級的困境。
但中山顯然是沒做好產業升級的準備。
中山和東莞很像,都是鎮域經濟為主的城市,各鎮發展比較割裂,但好歹東莞在產業轉型升級上走對了關鍵一步,集中力量去發展松山湖和南城CBD,松山湖有個華為,南城CBD有美宜佳總部,長安還有VIVO、oppo,就算是珠海也有格力,佛山有美的碧桂園,而中山呢,名氣響當當的企業就一個雅居樂地產發家中山,還是個房地產公司,其他的就真的沒有。
中山都是以中小微企業為主的制造業,沒有核心產業更缺乏知名企業的加盟,產業轉型路上走得不太通暢,這幾年中山的GDP增速一直是下滑的狀態。

中山現在的城市中心規劃是石岐鎮——東區——翠亨,其實沒什麽問題,翠亨新區在南沙、前海、橫琴三個國家級新區和廣深港澳四大城市兩個“同心圓”的圓心位置,北承廣州南沙新區,南接珠海橫琴新區,東經深中通道承接深圳前海新區,西連火炬開發區,地理位置絕佳。

規劃是有了,就看如何做了,現在要給當下中山的困境破局,等南沙落地時間太長,等橫琴又不夠強,還真的就得等2024年深中通道開通後,傍下深圳的大腿了。
缺技術,缺人才,更缺資金的中山實在是太饑渴了,迫切希望深圳能給中山帶來希望吧。
但過去幾年中山確實太膨脹了,深中通道還只是規劃的時候就開始火箭式上漲,一直到2018年9月的高位開始逐漸回落,之後就開始了下行通道,直到近期深圳東莞樓市的這波火熱也始終無法影響中山,因此我相信不少人會有疑問:
1、中山接下來是繼續下跌擠泡沫還是谷底反彈?
2、深中通道馬上開通,會不會再逆勢漲一波?
3、現在是不是抄底好時機了?

中山接下來還會繼續微跌,這是我的判斷。
實際上在2018年的公開課上,李老師就臨深三個城市東莞、惠陽和中山就做出了價值判斷,中山的投資價值排名是墊底的。
所以這次廣州深圳不帶中山玩,不出奇,但著實讓那波高位接盤的投資客開始焦慮了。

利好都往都市圈的其他城市跑了,中山恍惚間猶如一顆“棄子”,很多投資客都想趕緊出手轉戰別的投資窪地了,所以二手房掛牌量在近期一路上漲,為了搶占時間和機會成本,很多投資客可能還會繼續降價拋售。

當下的中山市場更多還是由本地人消化,但是本地土著一般有地有房,更願意住在自己的鄉村別墅裏,很少去買商品房,哪怕要買,住慣了2-300平米的大戶型,對那些100多平米的“小”戶型也看不上,所以去接投資客的盤不太可能。
而中山那些外來務工人員實際收入水平太低,根據2018年中山薪資調查,2018年中山平均工資是每月3684元,和很多三四線城市差不太多,此刻房價對他們來說可就不太友好了。
中山在過去幾年的上漲動能其實很明顯,就是深中通道的刺激。
2014年中山的庫存量還是70422套,去庫存成為中山樓市關鍵詞,2015年受到深中通道利好後,樓市開始活躍,2016年庫存量持續降低至40128套,但2018年後深中通道的概念炒作失效後,2019年的庫存量重新回到65781套。
可見以中山目前的人口池子和經濟水平其實根本消化不了那麽多庫存,其他大多數是由深圳投資客買走了,所以現在還想通過拋售中山房子獲利,沒那麽容易。

接下來中山陰跌的趨勢還是會持續一陣子,把泡沫再擠擠,熬一熬那些短炒的投資客。
但眼看現在距離規劃深中通道開通的時間不遠了,會不會再逆勢上漲?
深中通道開通這個節點肯定會有炒作,對中山房價肯定會有提振作用,但我認為難有觸底反彈的機會,頂多回歸過往的歷史高位,畢竟只有一條橋,沒有直接的產業刺激和人口導入,利好有限。

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